# Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 60% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 17:29:27 GMT. 24h change +7.0pp, 24h volume $497.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-halys-bellucc-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-halys-bellucc-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T17:29:27.583Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **60¢** (60%) |
| Δ 1h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +7.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $497.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $500.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $212.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Quentin Halys and Mattia Bellucci in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Mattia Bellucci.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Quentin Halys.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 85%): Probability moved up 7.0pp in 24h with 2.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbee5…a636` — 882,937.4 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 10,000 shares
- `0xde19…3c92` — 6,000 shares
- `0x021c…232f` — 4,800 shares
- `0x9d94…017d` — 3,999.996 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc3ac…b964` — 779,681.348 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 28,733.443 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 22,499.99 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 12,914.991 shares
- `0xa3f8…4682` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 62 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T17:26:03.000Z |
| Range | 51¢ → 93¢ |
| Net change | +38.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-halys-bellucc-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci — 60% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T17:29:27.583Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-halys-bellucc-2026-05-24.
```

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