# Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Riedi

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 22 May 2026 17:01:34 GMT. 24h change +73.0pp, 24h volume $399.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-herbert-riedi-2026-05-22
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-herbert-riedi-2026-05-22
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-22T17:01:34.220Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +65.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +73.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $399.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $399.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $557.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Leandro Riedi in the Roland Garros, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for May 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pierre-Hugues Herbert' if Pierre-Hugues Herbert advances against Leandro Riedi.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Leandro Riedi' if Leandro Riedi advances against Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 79%): Probability moved up 73.0pp in 24h with 0.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x56c9…0d9e` — 16,334.267 shares
- `0x5375…aeea` — 8,743.11 shares
- `0x01c7…e995` — 843.136 shares
- `0x4df3…788f` — 388 shares
- `0x4bf2…d280` — 216.667 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 34,480.007 shares
- `0xef1b…8697` — 31,975.844 shares
- `0x198f…c419` — 7,160.91 shares
- `0xc181…0992` — 3,720.934 shares
- `0xaba5…4e0e` — 2,512.016 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 41 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T23:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T14:42:03.000Z |
| Range | 27¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +71.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-herbert-riedi-2026-05-22` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Riedi — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-22T17:01:34.220Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-herbert-riedi-2026-05-22.
```

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