# Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Taro Daniel

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 13:47:28 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $254.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-hijikat-daniel-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-hijikat-daniel-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T13:47:28.539Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $254.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $254.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $203.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Rinky Hijikata and Taro Daniel in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 6:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Rinky Hijikata' if Rinky Hijikata advances against Taro Daniel.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Taro Daniel' if Taro Daniel advances against Rinky Hijikata.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3555…ba40` — 42,597.67 shares
- `0xba8c…e77d` — 23,940.52 shares
- `0xad10…c665` — 12,220 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 6,174.873 shares
- `0x3354…5042` — 2,114.849 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 36,991.86 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 9,631.251 shares
- `0x5fea…78b1` — 9,530.908 shares
- `0xa038…02a0` — 7,568 shares
- `0xfbfb…84a6` — 4,886.64 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 15 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T00:00:16.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T13:47:05.000Z |
| Range | 63¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +37.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-hijikat-daniel-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Taro Daniel — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T13:47:28.539Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-hijikat-daniel-2026-05-16.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*