# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 12% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 13:05:34 GMT. 24h change -19.5pp, 24h volume $402.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-humbert-prizmic-2026-05-10
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-humbert-prizmic-2026-05-10
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T13:05:34.490Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **12¢** (12%) |
| Δ 1h | -16.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -19.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $402.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $403.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $134.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Ugo Humbert and Dino Prizmic in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ugo Humbert' if Ugo Humbert advances against Dino Prizmic.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Dino Prizmic' if Dino Prizmic advances against Ugo Humbert.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 19.5pp in 24h with 3.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x37e4…c991` — 77,590.776 shares
- `0xa9c4…7433` — 47,002.147 shares
- `0xea2b…1fc6` — 30,999.999 shares
- `0xd123…d341` — 30,924.664 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 26,044.979 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x91ee…c5b8` — 160,883.903 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 35,497.42 shares
- `0xcd3f…8e2b` — 24,242.4 shares
- `0xcc8f…a7bb` — 23,459.94 shares
- `0x45e4…7e20` — 17,300.83 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 32 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T06:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T12:15:08.000Z |
| Range | 12¢ → 63¢ |
| Net change | -50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-humbert-prizmic-2026-05-10` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic — 12% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T13:05:34.490Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-humbert-prizmic-2026-05-10.
```

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