# Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 16:22:52 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $159.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-hurkacz-arnaldi-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-hurkacz-arnaldi-2026-05-03
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T16:22:52.832Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $159.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $159.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $265.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Cagliari, originally scheduled for May 3, 2026 at 9:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Matteo Arnaldi.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Hubert Hurkacz.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa0f2…1848` — 18,460.7 shares
- `0x65b9…ff15` — 15,849.923 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 6,053.106 shares
- `0x3e26…e4d1` — 5,999.99 shares
- `0x4f75…af7e` — 4,754.391 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xba8c…e77d` — 12,027.48 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 11,471.781 shares
- `0x153a…9d6d` — 8,237.485 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 7,000 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 6,405.045 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 19 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T23:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T16:22:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 73¢ |
| Net change | -72.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-hurkacz-arnaldi-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T16:22:52.832Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-hurkacz-arnaldi-2026-05-03.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*