# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yannick Hanfmann

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 20% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 14:27:09 GMT. 24h change -47.0pp, 24h volume $199.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-hurkacz-hanfman-2026-05-06
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-hurkacz-hanfman-2026-05-06
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T14:27:09.803Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **20¢** (20%) |
| Δ 1h | -58.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -47.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $199.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $200.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $176.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Yannick Hanfmann in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Yannick Hanfmann.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Yannick Hanfmann' if Yannick Hanfmann advances against Hubert Hurkacz.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 84%): Probability moved down 47.0pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x84cb…28ad` — 14,544.369 shares
- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 14,168.294 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 8,734.141 shares
- `0x5aa9…febe` — 7,779.655 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 7,709.005 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 26,369.648 shares
- `0x64c5…d255` — 23,235.44 shares
- `0x2a67…d370` — 7,498.044 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 6,170.912 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 5,270.895 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 47 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T14:27:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 83¢ |
| Net change | -36.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-hurkacz-hanfman-2026-05-06` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yannick Hanfmann — 20% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T14:27:09.803Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-hurkacz-hanfman-2026-05-06.
```

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