# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 67% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 19:36:55 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $270.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-jodar-darderi-2026-05-13
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-jodar-darderi-2026-05-13
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 20, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T19:36:55.055Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **67¢** (67%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $270.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $274.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $110.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 20, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Luciano Darderi in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Luciano Darderi.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Rafael Jodar.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbfe6…fcc9` — 36,898.791 shares
- `0x82cb…a4ee` — 26,607.634 shares
- `0x4f75…af7e` — 26,458.619 shares
- `0x8b52…568e` — 16,553.596 shares
- `0x0d46…b09b` — 14,432.49 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5bec…b215` — 88,636.403 shares
- `0x5234…4c4f` — 30,000 shares
- `0x1eaf…9bf0` — 11,999.967 shares
- `0x8f3c…2f57` — 9,267.745 shares
- `0x21f3…35e3` — 7,357.732 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 28 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T17:00:29.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T19:36:06.000Z |
| Range | 66¢ → 69¢ |
| Net change | -2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-jodar-darderi-2026-05-13` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi — 67% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T19:36:55.055Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-jodar-darderi-2026-05-13.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*