# Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 82% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 13:51:40 GMT. 24h change +3.0pp, 24h volume $17.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-khachan-gea-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-khachan-gea-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T13:51:40.931Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **82¢** (82%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $17.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $17.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $78.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Arthur Gea in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Arthur Gea.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Karen Khachanov.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x44a1…bd21` — 30,120 shares
- `0xb9e5…1809` — 15,702.284 shares
- `0xdc87…ea3b` — 10,684.861 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 10,014.787 shares
- `0xa2dd…e1b2` — 5,588.52 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 27,368.453 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 21,203.755 shares
- `0xa3f8…4682` — 7,139.319 shares
- `0xeaf3…e802` — 3,999.992 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 3,779.252 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 49 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T04:59:04.000Z |
| Range | 78¢ → 82¢ |
| Net change | +3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-khachan-gea-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea — 82% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T13:51:40.931Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-khachan-gea-2026-05-24.
```

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