# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 11:50:33 GMT. 24h change +61.5pp, 24h volume $870.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-khachan-prizmic-2026-05-11
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-khachan-prizmic-2026-05-11
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T11:50:33.176Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +22.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +61.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $870.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $874.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $613.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Dino Prizmic in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Dino Prizmic.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Dino Prizmic' if Dino Prizmic advances against Karen Khachanov.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 88%): Probability moved up 61.5pp in 24h with 1.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x83d2…d196` — 39,865.837 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 33,102 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 28,148 shares
- `0xb7b3…9573` — 27,951.387 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 24,617 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x204f…5e14` — 35,114.176 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 32,649.764 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 31,986.137 shares
- `0xeaf3…e802` — 22,899.985 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 16,999.838 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 44 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T17:00:27.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T11:49:07.000Z |
| Range | 35¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +57.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-khachan-prizmic-2026-05-11` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T11:50:33.176Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-khachan-prizmic-2026-05-11.
```

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