# Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 30% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 15:40:20 GMT. 24h change -20.5pp, 24h volume $4.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-kokkina-busta-2026-05-27
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-kokkina-busta-2026-05-27
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T15:40:20.361Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **30¢** (30%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -20.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $4.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $4.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $65.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Thanasi Kokkinakis and Pablo Carreno Busta in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Thanasi Kokkinakis' if Thanasi Kokkinakis advances against Pablo Carreno Busta.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Thanasi Kokkinakis.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 71%): Probability moved down 20.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 15:37 UTC | `Urban-Lute` | SELL | PABLO CARRENO BUSTA | $18.81 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2005…75ea` — 33,777.669 shares
- `0x5d1d…afd2` — 20,013.643 shares
- `0x86fb…03d4` — 20,013.643 shares
- `0x363c…4463` — 19,244.433 shares
- `0x6f3e…bcf8` — 19,229.27 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5d76…9168` — 33,333 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 29,999.934 shares
- `0xb595…5922` — 29,000 shares
- `0xe30e…6b87` — 26,901.889 shares
- `0xcd3f…8e2b` — 12,499.85 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 48 |
| Window start | 2026-05-25T17:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T15:40:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -49.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-kokkina-busta-2026-05-27` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta — 30% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T15:40:20.361Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-kokkina-busta-2026-05-27.
```

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