# Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Andrea Pellegrino

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 22% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 16:25:44 GMT. 24h change -28.5pp, 24h volume $323.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-landalu-pellegr-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-landalu-pellegr-2026-05-05
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T16:25:44.897Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **22¢** (22%) |
| Δ 1h | -28.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -28.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $323.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $323.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $49.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Landaluce and Andrea Pellegrino in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Martin Landaluce' if Martin Landaluce advances against Andrea Pellegrino.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Andrea Pellegrino' if Andrea Pellegrino advances against Martin Landaluce.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 28.5pp in 24h with 6.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x27b0…fc67` — 25,389.115 shares
- `0x45e4…7e20` — 15,000 shares
- `0x0c45…0ac6` — 14,382.449 shares
- `0x51eb…6bfa` — 13,499.987 shares
- `0x2a67…d370` — 13,474.624 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 19,284.904 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 12,844.266 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 12,668.284 shares
- `0x84cb…28ad` — 12,280.807 shares
- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 9,723.483 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 25 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T16:25:05.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 65¢ |
| Net change | -58.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-landalu-pellegr-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Andrea Pellegrino — 22% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T16:25:44.897Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-landalu-pellegr-2026-05-05.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*