# Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 95% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 14:50:20 GMT. 24h change +23.1pp, 24h volume $419.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-landalu-prado-2026-05-25
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-landalu-prado-2026-05-25
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T14:50:20.821Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **95¢** (95%) |
| Δ 1h | +12.6pp |
| Δ 24h | +23.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $419.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $428.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $45.5K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Landaluce and Juan Carlos Prado in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Martin Landaluce' if Martin Landaluce advances against Juan Carlos Prado.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Juan Carlos Prado' if Juan Carlos Prado advances against Martin Landaluce.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 23.1pp in 24h with 9.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 14:49 UTC | `Tangible-Seeker` | BUY | MARTIN LANDALUCE | $10.00 |
| May 26, 14:49 UTC | `0xdeff…78f8` | BUY | JUAN CARLOS PRADO | $186.35 |
| May 26, 14:49 UTC | `0xdeff…78f8` | BUY | JUAN CARLOS PRADO | $48.28 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x88d1…18da` — 63,499.785 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 50,000.332 shares
- `0x18c4…f6dc` — 14,163.997 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 13,512.962 shares
- `0x45e1…5934` — 10,854.734 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 50,510.219 shares
- `0x198f…c419` — 28,583.804 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 18,283.578 shares
- `0x5ba6…0f07` — 13,052.37 shares
- `0x160b…4296` — 12,883.487 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 75 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T05:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T06:17:04.000Z |
| Range | 59¢ → 74¢ |
| Net change | +1.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-landalu-prado-2026-05-25` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado — 95% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T14:50:20.821Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-landalu-prado-2026-05-25.
```

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