# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 50% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 10:54:17 GMT. 24h change +9.0pp, 24h volume $178.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-machac-medvede-2026-05-08
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-machac-medvede-2026-05-08
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T10:54:17.259Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **50¢** (50%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +9.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $178.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $186.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $180.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Daniil Medvedev in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Daniil Medvedev.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Tomas Machac.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf5fe…e23d` — 67,944.688 shares
- `0x09b6…f48d` — 4,999.894 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 4,138.182 shares
- `0x8db7…5143` — 3,933.741 shares
- `0x2f01…fa78` — 3,208.657 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xcec1…9c0c` — 23,593.96 shares
- `0x88d1…18da` — 11,849.825 shares
- `0x16db…8d0f` — 10,460.43 shares
- `0x4df3…788f` — 8,145 shares
- `0xde04…fa37` — 6,405.672 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 37 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:18.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T10:54:04.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | +13.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-machac-medvede-2026-05-08` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev — 50% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T10:54:17.259Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-machac-medvede-2026-05-08.
```

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