# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 79% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 20:05:57 GMT. 24h change +42.0pp, 24h volume $769.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-medjedo-fonseca-2026-05-08
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-medjedo-fonseca-2026-05-08
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T20:05:57.142Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **79¢** (79%) |
| Δ 1h | +63.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +42.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $769.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $774.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $214.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Hamad Medjedovic and Joao Fonseca in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Hamad Medjedovic' if Hamad Medjedovic advances against Joao Fonseca.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Hamad Medjedovic.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 42.0pp in 24h with 3.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 53,881.271 shares
- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 43,956 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 23,312.339 shares
- `0x153a…9d6d` — 21,156.482 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 15,062.23 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x88d1…18da` — 72,999.93 shares
- `0x9c87…2e1c` — 39,999.995 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 34,681.103 shares
- `0x4f75…af7e` — 30,713.663 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 29,999.984 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 46 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:20.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T19:57:07.000Z |
| Range | 16¢ → 96¢ |
| Net change | +45.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-medjedo-fonseca-2026-05-08` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca — 79% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T20:05:57.142Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-medjedo-fonseca-2026-05-08.
```

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