# Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 39% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 18:47:04 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $385.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-michels-tien-2026-05-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-michels-tien-2026-05-21
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T18:47:04.924Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **39¢** (39%) |
| Δ 1h | -6.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $385.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $385.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $85.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Learner Tien in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 21, 2026 at 12:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Learner Tien.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Alex Michelsen.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x25cb…03a3` — 35,080.06 shares
- `0x0dcf…c556` — 19,999.82 shares
- `0x482d…ba5e` — 18,999.984 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 11,999.925 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 9,633.894 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 33,840.671 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 20,810.737 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 19,452.23 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 14,545.311 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 9,180.236 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 21 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T23:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T18:01:05.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | -43.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-michels-tien-2026-05-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien — 39% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T18:47:04.924Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-michels-tien-2026-05-21.
```

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