# Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 80% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 29 May 2026 18:31:01 GMT. 24h change +3.5pp, 24h volume $366.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-minaur-mensik-2026-05-29
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-minaur-mensik-2026-05-29
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-29T18:31:01.036Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **80¢** (80%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $366.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $419.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $49.6K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Jakub Mensik in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Jakub Mensik.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Alex de Minaur.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x979f…4032` — 62,224.597 shares
- `0x780a…84f0` — 50,884.51 shares
- `0xca3e…f426` — 46,059.27 shares
- `0x84cb…28ad` — 40,530.964 shares
- `0x9265…2cc0` — 40,406.839 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4900…4a72` — 45,609.638 shares
- `0xf3ce…8bc6` — 37,781.56 shares
- `0xc117…de2f` — 35,713.848 shares
- `0xe7a2…ae70` — 29,615.757 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 28,035.542 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 44 |
| Window start | 2026-05-27T23:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-29T18:17:04.000Z |
| Range | 6¢ → 87¢ |
| Net change | -64.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-minaur-mensik-2026-05-29` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik — 80% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-29T18:31:01.036Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-minaur-mensik-2026-05-29.
```

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