# Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 22 May 2026 19:20:46 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $1.3M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-minaur-paul-2026-05-22
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-minaur-paul-2026-05-22
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-22T19:20:46.041Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.3M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $968.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for May 22, 2026 at 11:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Tommy Paul.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Alex de Minaur.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xeee9…0752` — 74,140.359 shares
- `0xbe7e…6d00` — 36,003.725 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 21,515.443 shares
- `0x83d2…d196` — 19,448.354 shares
- `0xe2e9…1c08` — 16,642.583 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 51,728.298 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 38,817.1 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 31,539 shares
- `0xf3ce…8bc6` — 29,692.58 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 22,485 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 22 |
| Window start | 2026-05-21T23:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T19:06:08.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 82¢ |
| Net change | -55.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-minaur-paul-2026-05-22` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-22T19:20:46.041Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-minaur-paul-2026-05-22.
```

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