# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 13:03:35 GMT. 24h change -53.4pp, 24h volume $1.1M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-moutet-ruiz-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-moutet-ruiz-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T13:03:35.259Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -12.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -53.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.1M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $512.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Corentin Moutet and Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 9, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Corentin Moutet' if Corentin Moutet advances against Pablo Llamas Ruiz.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas Ruiz' if Pablo Llamas Ruiz advances against Corentin Moutet.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 53.4pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 22,319.567 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 21,367.361 shares
- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 16,699.988 shares
- `0x8e8c…65dd` — 12,357.534 shares
- `0xce36…2b99` — 11,316.47 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 37,503.982 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 24,507 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 19,630.16 shares
- `0x9d94…017d` — 17,374.919 shares
- `0x153a…9d6d` — 10,982.605 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 40 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:23.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T13:03:13.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 57¢ |
| Net change | -55.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-moutet-ruiz-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T13:03:35.259Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-moutet-ruiz-2026-05-09.
```

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