# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 18:05:00 GMT. 24h change +49.5pp, 24h volume $690.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-musetti-cerundo-2026-05-10
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-musetti-cerundo-2026-05-10
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T18:05:00.805Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +49.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $690.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $693.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $521.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Francisco Cerundolo in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Francisco Cerundolo.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Lorenzo Musetti.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xba8c…e77d` — 42,000 shares
- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 21,038 shares
- `0x751a…9ea1` — 20,310.54 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 20,000 shares
- `0x1df2…89a0` — 6,705.539 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9a8c…ba13` — 31,333.891 shares
- `0x45e4…7e20` — 20,000 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 10,000 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 9,982.338 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 8,541.667 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 34 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T10:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T18:04:08.000Z |
| Range | 39¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +49.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-musetti-cerundo-2026-05-10` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T18:05:00.805Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-musetti-cerundo-2026-05-10.
```

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