# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista Agut

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 17:52:53 GMT. 24h change +37.5pp, 24h volume $234.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-nakashi-agut-2026-05-08
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-nakashi-agut-2026-05-08
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T17:52:53.367Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +37.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $234.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $240.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $368.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Roberto Bautista Agut in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Roberto Bautista Agut.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Roberto Bautista Agut' if Roberto Bautista Agut advances against Brandon Nakashima.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x44a1…bd21` — 31,075.74 shares
- `0x6049…f14f` — 25,472.98 shares
- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 15,547.605 shares
- `0x7e85…c2f1` — 15,527.83 shares
- `0x9b2b…5752` — 9,975 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xeaf3…e802` — 21,110 shares
- `0xaa4a…ad2f` — 16,000 shares
- `0xa9ab…b6b2` — 12,999.982 shares
- `0x51e1…5ec9` — 10,000 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 9,131.09 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 50 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T17:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T17:51:09.000Z |
| Range | 51¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +49.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-nakashi-agut-2026-05-08` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista Agut — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T17:52:53.367Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-nakashi-agut-2026-05-08.
```

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