# Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 50% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 17:32:24 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $581.92.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-nava-carabel-2026-05-25
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-nava-carabel-2026-05-25
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T17:32:24.746Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **50¢** (50%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $581.92 |
| Lifetime volume | $581.92 |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $66.1K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Emilio Nava and Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emilio Nava advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Emilio Nava.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x187a…a22b` — 109,975.781 shares
- `0xa1e4…4f8a` — 17,690.976 shares
- `0xbbf3…aa3a` — 12,772.041 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 9,999.927 shares
- `0xcd65…ee96` — 9,739.956 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 55,473.259 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 20,000 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 16,850.661 shares
- `0x64c5…d255` — 16,397.7 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 15,521.355 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 62 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T05:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T17:32:03.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | -50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-nava-carabel-2026-05-25` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — 50% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T17:32:24.746Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-nava-carabel-2026-05-25.
```

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