# Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 59% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 13:43:26 GMT. 24h change +13.0pp, 24h volume $631.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-navone-mensik-2026-05-27
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-navone-mensik-2026-05-27
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T13:43:26.065Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **59¢** (59%) |
| Δ 1h | +31.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +13.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $631.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $634.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $108.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Jakub Mensik in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Jakub Mensik.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Mariano Navone.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 13.0pp in 24h with 5.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 13:41 UTC | `Unwilling-Brewer` | BUY | JAKUB MENSIK | $4.02 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf284…b9f9` — 177,798.323 shares
- `0x03f8…d85a` — 104,210.616 shares
- `0x5966…f804` — 44,998.896 shares
- `0xc181…0992` — 12,461.844 shares
- `0xc3df…9945` — 11,971.259 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 97,521.575 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 52,810.978 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 42,816.47 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 40,421.694 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 21,814.434 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 46 |
| Window start | 2026-05-25T17:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T13:41:04.000Z |
| Range | 30¢ → 72¢ |
| Net change | -16.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-navone-mensik-2026-05-27` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik — 59% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T13:43:26.065Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-navone-mensik-2026-05-27.
```

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