# Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 56% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 16:40:33 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $173.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-navone-tien-2026-05-23
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-navone-tien-2026-05-23
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T16:40:33.839Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **56¢** (56%) |
| Δ 1h | -3.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $173.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $173.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $13.2K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 30, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Learner Tien in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 9:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Learner Tien.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Mariano Navone.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1136…0c2e` — 33,068.09 shares
- `0x86e9…4cdf` — 23,131.051 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 17,299.645 shares
- `0x03f8…d85a` — 16,006.639 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 15,673.85 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9ad6…4251` — 35,244 shares
- `0x88d1…18da` — 34,999.977 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 34,893.913 shares
- `0xb595…5922` — 32,000 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 25,222 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 16 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T23:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T13:23:04.000Z |
| Range | 57¢ → 61¢ |
| Net change | +2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-navone-tien-2026-05-23` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien — 56% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T16:40:33.839Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-navone-tien-2026-05-23.
```

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