# Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 16:09:16 GMT. 24h change -46.5pp, 24h volume $328.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-norrie-vallejo-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-norrie-vallejo-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T16:09:16.934Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -44.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -46.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $328.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $347.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $388.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Adolfo Vallejo in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Adolfo Vallejo.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Adolfo Vallejo' if Adolfo Vallejo advances against Cameron Norrie.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 81%): Probability moved down 46.5pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4be1…aa70` — 46,904.983 shares
- `0xd123…d341` — 15,562.146 shares
- `0xaa96…5a05` — 11,999.974 shares
- `0x21f3…35e3` — 4,511.011 shares
- `0xbfd7…f0bf` — 4,004.815 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xde9f…d43c` — 14,032.313 shares
- `0x86c8…c867` — 4,999.978 shares
- `0x32b4…8b21` — 2,269.406 shares
- `0x4093…5749` — 1,263.824 shares
- `0xb693…cfc9` — 1,125 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 107 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T14:09:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | -47.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-norrie-vallejo-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T16:09:16.934Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-norrie-vallejo-2026-05-24.
```

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