# Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 20:07:30 GMT. 24h change -25.4pp, 24h volume $348.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ofner-darderi-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-ofner-darderi-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T20:07:30.875Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -25.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $348.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $360.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $280.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Ofner and Luciano Darderi in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Ofner' if Sebastian Ofner advances against Luciano Darderi.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Sebastian Ofner.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x363c…4463` — 30,654.144 shares
- `0x9367…f6be` — 24,999.943 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 24,785.881 shares
- `0xde9f…d43c` — 5,300.139 shares
- `0x99f0…9495` — 4,836.95 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x204f…5e14` — 36,095.294 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 23,568.13 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 15,628.32 shares
- `0xe524…d34f` — 13,232.12 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 6,666 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 91 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T22:46:04.000Z |
| Range | 26¢ → 28¢ |
| Net change | -1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-ofner-darderi-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T20:07:30.875Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ofner-darderi-2026-05-24.
```

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