# Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 00:20:05 GMT. 24h change +50.9pp, 24h volume $161.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-onclin-mmoh-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-onclin-mmoh-2026-05-03
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T00:20:05.086Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +50.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $161.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $161.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $469.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Gauthier Onclin and Michael Mmoh in the Abidjan 2, originally scheduled for May 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Gauthier Onclin' if Gauthier Onclin advances against Michael Mmoh.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Michael Mmoh' if Michael Mmoh advances against Gauthier Onclin.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x507e…beae` — 8,339.772 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 1,525.51 shares
- `0x551d…9326` — 566.038 shares
- `0x400d…e759` — 530.987 shares
- `0x9694…b7ad` — 300.024 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x363c…4463` — 7,750.256 shares
- `0x1ef5…dc05` — 7,380.588 shares
- `0x51e1…5ec9` — 5,799.91 shares
- `0x6945…729c` — 4,998.64 shares
- `0xa724…7bda` — 4,702.987 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 24 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T23:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T21:36:19.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +51.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-onclin-mmoh-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T00:20:05.086Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-onclin-mmoh-2026-05-03.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*