# Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 67% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 14:56:55 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $68.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-paul-altmaie-2026-05-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-altmaie-2026-05-21
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T14:56:55.077Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **67¢** (67%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $68.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $68.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $53.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Altmaier in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for May 21, 2026 at 6:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Daniel Altmaier.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Daniel Altmaier' if Daniel Altmaier advances against Tommy Paul.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x25cb…03a3` — 29,261.103 shares
- `0x1467…4372` — 20,967.74 shares
- `0x26b4…b8a9` — 12,842.409 shares
- `0x6b8f…449b` — 11,673.639 shares
- `0x48ed…f0e2` — 10,400 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb3cf…0ebd` — 24,890.477 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 18,890.698 shares
- `0x160b…4296` — 13,916 shares
- `0x9d94…017d` — 13,884.069 shares
- `0x6ade…f5b0` — 10,255.35 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 19 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T17:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T10:09:04.000Z |
| Range | 67¢ → 70¢ |
| Net change | -3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-paul-altmaie-2026-05-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier — 67% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T14:56:55.077Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-paul-altmaie-2026-05-21.
```

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