# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 19:24:02 GMT. 24h change -56.5pp, 24h volume $593.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-paul-darderi-2026-05-10
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-darderi-2026-05-10
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T19:24:02.028Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -56.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $593.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $595.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $280.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Luciano Darderi in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Luciano Darderi.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Tommy Paul.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 56.5pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd4f9…f619` — 58,304.814 shares
- `0x5bec…b215` — 29,590.38 shares
- `0xe4d3…c2f0` — 14,130.435 shares
- `0xd5d4…8b32` — 12,557.702 shares
- `0xbfd7…f0bf` — 10,434.054 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 44,574.017 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 40,774.083 shares
- `0xc5dc…7cf2` — 27,222 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 19,117.49 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 14,008 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 35 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T10:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T19:22:10.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 92¢ |
| Net change | -56.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-paul-darderi-2026-05-10` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T19:24:02.028Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-paul-darderi-2026-05-10.
```

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