# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 23:06:07 GMT. 24h change +90.5pp, 24h volume $468.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-pellegr-fils-2026-05-08
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-pellegr-fils-2026-05-08
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T23:06:07.674Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +90.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $468.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $470.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $166.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Pellegrino and Arthur Fils in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Andrea Pellegrino' if Andrea Pellegrino advances against Arthur Fils.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Andrea Pellegrino.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 90.5pp in 24h with 2.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 66,954 shares
- `0xb31e…c120` — 40,000.319 shares
- `0xc5dc…7cf2` — 25,985.1 shares
- `0xcd3f…8e2b` — 24,242.4 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 16,950.67 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x507e…beae` — 44,456.016 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 44,085.273 shares
- `0x5aa9…febe` — 34,529.56 shares
- `0xca20…7b68` — 28,589.844 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 24,499.707 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 50 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T23:05:10.000Z |
| Range | 9¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +85.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-pellegr-fils-2026-05-08` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T23:06:07.674Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-pellegr-fils-2026-05-08.
```

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