# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 44% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 23:05:28 GMT. 24h change +13.0pp, 24h volume $713.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-popyrin-mensik-2026-05-08
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-popyrin-mensik-2026-05-08
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T23:05:28.071Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **44¢** (44%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +13.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $713.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $713.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $53.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alexei Popyrin and Jakub Mensik in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexei Popyrin' if Alexei Popyrin advances against Jakub Mensik.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Alexei Popyrin.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 65%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -2.5pp vs. 24h +13.0pp.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4f75…af7e` — 39,044.297 shares
- `0x9a8c…ba13` — 31,409.057 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 17,006.122 shares
- `0x3542…c3c8` — 14,237.044 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 13,111.721 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x204f…5e14` — 47,436.716 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 17,683.55 shares
- `0x7d4d…8525` — 15,391.809 shares
- `0x5aa9…febe` — 15,027.13 shares
- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 13,938.573 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 55 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T17:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T22:09:08.000Z |
| Range | 30¢ → 46¢ |
| Net change | +6.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-popyrin-mensik-2026-05-08` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik — 44% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T23:05:28.071Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-popyrin-mensik-2026-05-08.
```

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