# Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 26% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 14:08:28 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $325.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-popyrin-ruud-2026-05-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-popyrin-ruud-2026-05-21
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T14:08:28.917Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **26¢** (26%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $325.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $325.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $60.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alexei Popyrin and Casper Ruud in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 21, 2026 at 8:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexei Popyrin' if Alexei Popyrin advances against Casper Ruud.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Alexei Popyrin.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5bec…b215` — 96,403.854 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 39,755.304 shares
- `0x6ade…f5b0` — 13,455.935 shares
- `0x6566…ea1e` — 12,961.319 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 12,301.363 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1eaf…9bf0` — 60,800.941 shares
- `0x88d1…18da` — 39,999.975 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 22,756 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 16,153.081 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 10,923.05 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 22 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T13:19:05.000Z |
| Range | 11¢ → 31¢ |
| Net change | -20.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-popyrin-ruud-2026-05-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud — 26% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T14:08:28.917Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-popyrin-ruud-2026-05-21.
```

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