# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 16:16:46 GMT. 24h change -43.5pp, 24h volume $629.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-quinn-ruiz-2026-05-07
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-quinn-ruiz-2026-05-07
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T16:16:46.887Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -40.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -43.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $629.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $632.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $907.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Ethan Quinn and Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ethan Quinn' if Ethan Quinn advances against Pablo Llamas Ruiz.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas Ruiz' if Pablo Llamas Ruiz advances against Ethan Quinn.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 79%): Probability moved down 43.5pp in 24h with 0.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9ac2…be3d` — 69,999.644 shares
- `0xa2e4…bf9d` — 15,561.556 shares
- `0x3450…6793` — 13,767.495 shares
- `0x3354…5042` — 10,061.731 shares
- `0x9cb4…8285` — 6,747.68 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 62,177.779 shares
- `0x9d94…017d` — 17,276.28 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 13,157.33 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 12,979.11 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 11,999.978 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 42 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T23:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T15:40:06.000Z |
| Range | 21¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | +1.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-quinn-ruiz-2026-05-07` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T16:16:46.887Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-quinn-ruiz-2026-05-07.
```

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