# Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 48% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 20:35:31 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $173.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-rinderk-bublik-2026-05-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-rinderk-bublik-2026-05-21
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T20:35:31.074Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **48¢** (48%) |
| Δ 1h | +11.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $173.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $173.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $55.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Rinderknech and Alexander Bublik in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 21, 2026 at 1:30PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Alexander Bublik.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Arthur Rinderknech.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x45e4…7e20` — 27,009.803 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 25,210.2 shares
- `0x88d1…18da` — 23,000 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 16,664.688 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 16,565.862 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 57,305.7 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 30,089.328 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 20,196.21 shares
- `0x59ba…f6a2` — 12,970 shares
- `0xc5dc…7cf2` — 12,561.613 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 23 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T23:00:22.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T20:35:07.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | -41.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-rinderk-bublik-2026-05-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik — 48% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T20:35:31.074Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-rinderk-bublik-2026-05-21.
```

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