# Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 99% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 14:26:16 GMT. 24h change +28.5pp, 24h volume $264.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-rinderk-rodiono-2026-05-25
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-rinderk-rodiono-2026-05-25
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T14:26:16.170Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **99¢** (99%) |
| Δ 1h | +16.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +28.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $264.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $264.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $45.0K |
| Spread | 0.80pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Rinderknech and Jurij Rodionov in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Jurij Rodionov.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jurij Rodionov' if Jurij Rodionov advances against Arthur Rinderknech.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 28.5pp in 24h with 5.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3555…ba40` — 21,214.49 shares
- `0x45e4…7e20` — 18,278.38 shares
- `0x2eaa…7d1a` — 15,000 shares
- `0xba8c…e77d` — 15,000 shares
- `0x5912…6f45` — 13,374.93 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 15,426.681 shares
- `0x6a32…0086` — 12,584.873 shares
- `0xa3f8…4682` — 10,336.731 shares
- `0x21f3…35e3` — 9,057.96 shares
- `0x26e7…cc6c` — 8,660.38 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 56 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T05:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T11:44:04.000Z |
| Range | 63¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +31.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-rinderk-rodiono-2026-05-25` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov — 99% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T14:26:16.170Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-rinderk-rodiono-2026-05-25.
```

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