# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 17:49:34 GMT. 24h change +24.4pp, 24h volume $1.3M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-rublev-basilas-2026-05-12
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-rublev-basilas-2026-05-12
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T17:49:34.172Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +77.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +24.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.3M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $695.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Andrey Rublev and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Andrey Rublev.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 94%): Probability moved up 24.4pp in 24h with 1.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2eaa…7d1a` — 65,491.48 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 45,000 shares
- `0xcc8f…a7bb` — 39,069.57 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 33,029.622 shares
- `0xdbbb…05a8` — 22,931.789 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x7754…9709` — 79,028.122 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 36,858.678 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 30,920.712 shares
- `0x3b5c…126e` — 16,026.271 shares
- `0xf56b…ac88` — 15,885.466 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 25 |
| Window start | 2026-05-11T17:00:18.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T17:00:31.000Z |
| Range | 13¢ → 91¢ |
| Net change | +17.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-rublev-basilas-2026-05-12` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T17:49:34.172Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-rublev-basilas-2026-05-12.
```

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