# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 18:44:46 GMT. 24h change -34.4pp, 24h volume $1.3M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ruiz-medvede-2026-05-11
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-ruiz-medvede-2026-05-11
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T18:44:46.243Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -34.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.3M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $816.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Daniil Medvedev in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas Ruiz' if Pablo Llamas Ruiz advances against Daniil Medvedev.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Pablo Llamas Ruiz.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6eb7…a0f1` — 97,006.049 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 47,472.969 shares
- `0x45e4…7e20` — 43,876.221 shares
- `0x5234…4c4f` — 22,129.103 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 21,941.233 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x88d1…18da` — 79,999.866 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 68,300 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 40,000 shares
- `0x6832…831f` — 34,999.921 shares
- `0xe7a2…ae70` — 20,000.35 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 50 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T18:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T18:44:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 47¢ |
| Net change | -46.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-ruiz-medvede-2026-05-11` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T18:44:46.243Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ruiz-medvede-2026-05-11.
```

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