# Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 14% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 11:51:10 GMT. 24h change -31.0pp, 24h volume $398.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ruiz-tirante-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-ruiz-tirante-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T11:51:10.044Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **14¢** (14%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -31.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $398.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $399.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $62.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas Ruiz' if Pablo Llamas Ruiz advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Pablo Llamas Ruiz.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 31.0pp in 24h with 6.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf284…b9f9` — 85,714.182 shares
- `0x83d2…d196` — 30,308.788 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 12,710.342 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 8,709.746 shares
- `0x0828…a1a6` — 7,247.237 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2c33…0563` — 48,769.93 shares
- `0xcd65…ee96` — 22,817.348 shares
- `0x5ba6…0f07` — 14,224.551 shares
- `0x5d1d…afd2` — 9,615.385 shares
- `0xdc87…ea3b` — 9,044.593 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 37 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T23:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T10:03:04.000Z |
| Range | 26¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -19.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-ruiz-tirante-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — 14% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T11:51:10.044Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ruiz-tirante-2026-05-24.
```

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