# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 87% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 14:49:24 GMT. 24h change +14.0pp, 24h volume $631.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ruud-darderi-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-ruud-darderi-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T14:49:24.714Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **87¢** (87%) |
| Δ 1h | +14.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +14.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $631.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $633.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $242.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Luciano Darderi in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 7:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Luciano Darderi.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Casper Ruud.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 14.0pp in 24h with 2.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf284…b9f9` — 67,626.407 shares
- `0x8bfe…2d74` — 62,972.235 shares
- `0xcd65…ee96` — 43,478.261 shares
- `0x5af4…a7df` — 35,369.961 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 28,985.507 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5bec…b215` — 152,184.326 shares
- `0x187a…a22b` — 46,045.831 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 36,139.107 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 20,390.457 shares
- `0xa742…68c5` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 34 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T05:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T14:44:13.000Z |
| Range | 69¢ → 87¢ |
| Net change | +15.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-ruud-darderi-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi — 87% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T14:49:24.714Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ruud-darderi-2026-05-15.
```

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