# Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 22 May 2026 17:01:32 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $958.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ruud-navone-2026-05-22
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-ruud-navone-2026-05-22
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-22T17:01:32.959Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $958.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $958.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $913.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Mariano Navone in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 22, 2026 at 6:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Mariano Navone.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Casper Ruud.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5291…d4b6` — 30,689.216 shares
- `0x9b2b…5752` — 25,523.674 shares
- `0x03f8…d85a` — 25,190.264 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 15,980.114 shares
- `0x7668…fa36` — 13,971.606 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa9c4…7433` — 19,999.85 shares
- `0x01c7…e995` — 16,107.599 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 15,000 shares
- `0x2c33…0563` — 9,246.999 shares
- `0x0cef…fa91` — 1,999.983 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 24 |
| Window start | 2026-05-21T17:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T15:08:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 82¢ |
| Net change | -71.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-ruud-navone-2026-05-22` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-22T17:01:32.959Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-ruud-navone-2026-05-22.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*