# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 22:17:36 GMT. 24h change -35.4pp, 24h volume $316.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-shapova-navone-2026-05-06
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-shapova-navone-2026-05-06
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T22:17:36.717Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -35.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $316.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $323.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $813.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Denis Shapovalov and Mariano Navone in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Mariano Navone.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Denis Shapovalov.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x625d…c6a1` — 29,118.824 shares
- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 24,920.951 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 9,580.044 shares
- `0x8f3c…2f57` — 7,000 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 6,665.016 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x7e85…c2f1` — 34,849.44 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 17,654.36 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 12,542.597 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 8,999.987 shares
- `0x9d94…017d` — 7,162.382 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 79 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T22:17:19.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -37.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-shapova-navone-2026-05-06` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T22:17:36.717Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-shapova-navone-2026-05-06.
```

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