# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 92% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 13:34:06 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $225.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-sinner-medvede-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-sinner-medvede-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T13:34:06.645Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **92¢** (92%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $225.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $225.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $116.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 1:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jannik Sinner' if Jannik Sinner advances against Daniil Medvedev.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Jannik Sinner.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1eaf…9bf0` — 90,055.599 shares
- `0xbdc3…c0ea` — 20,432.237 shares
- `0xf3b0…23a1` — 16,379.32 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 10,836.11 shares
- `0xdc87…ea3b` — 6,902.826 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1925…4654` — 94,999.835 shares
- `0x9f2f…2ca8` — 25,713.711 shares
- `0xafe6…8192` — 9,999.967 shares
- `0x90ba…63f3` — 8,199.989 shares
- `0x52d9…fb1a` — 8,031.08 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 16 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T23:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T13:33:08.000Z |
| Range | 92¢ → 93¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-sinner-medvede-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev — 92% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T13:34:06.645Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-sinner-medvede-2026-05-15.
```

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