# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 97% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 08:57:51 GMT. 24h change +1.8pp, 24h volume $181.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-sinner-popyrin-2026-05-11
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-sinner-popyrin-2026-05-11
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T08:57:51.722Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **97¢** (97%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.8pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $181.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $183.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $62.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Sinner and Alexei Popyrin in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jannik Sinner' if Jannik Sinner advances against Alexei Popyrin.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexei Popyrin' if Alexei Popyrin advances against Jannik Sinner.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4900…4a72` — 51,500.83 shares
- `0xb7cb…e02f` — 38,367.402 shares
- `0xcc8f…a7bb` — 18,407.14 shares
- `0x4920…2ef4` — 4,106.776 shares
- `0x2ea0…8a57` — 2,511.689 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 46,665.871 shares
- `0x3359…81c2` — 17,174.84 shares
- `0x4df3…788f` — 12,591.224 shares
- `0x99b4…f541` — 7,939.677 shares
- `0x6717…d6eb` — 3,703.704 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 29 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T05:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T08:57:06.000Z |
| Range | 94¢ → 98¢ |
| Net change | +3.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-sinner-popyrin-2026-05-11` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin — 97% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T08:57:51.722Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-sinner-popyrin-2026-05-11.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*