# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 99% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 12:04:59 GMT. 24h change +4.9pp, 24h volume $374.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-sinner-rublev-2026-05-14
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-sinner-rublev-2026-05-14
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T12:04:59.078Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **99¢** (99%) |
| Δ 1h | +3.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +4.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $374.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $402.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $118.2K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jannik Sinner' if Jannik Sinner advances against Andrey Rublev.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Jannik Sinner.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 77%): Probability moved up 4.9pp in 24h with 3.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb7cb…e02f` — 39,741.918 shares
- `0xe8d7…1252` — 34,999.906 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 20,000 shares
- `0x1eaf…9bf0` — 17,298.37 shares
- `0xf3b0…23a1` — 15,157.895 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6f8b…01aa` — 49,999.956 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 45,209.423 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 29,027.321 shares
- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 27,027.906 shares
- `0xd1ed…d7cb` — 15,920.99 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 39 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T23:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T12:03:06.000Z |
| Range | 94¢ → 99¢ |
| Net change | +4.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-sinner-rublev-2026-05-14` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev — 99% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T12:04:59.078Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-sinner-rublev-2026-05-14.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*