# Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 83% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 02:00:31 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $125.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-sinner-zverev-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-sinner-zverev-2026-05-03
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T02:00:31.760Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **83¢** (83%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $125.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $131.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $47.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for May 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jannik Sinner' if Jannik Sinner advances against Alexander Zverev.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexander Zverev' if Alexander Zverev advances against Jannik Sinner.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 39,999.946 shares
- `0xa8ca…d535` — 9,523.81 shares
- `0xc0ff…9953` — 7,499.973 shares
- `0xa181…ece8` — 6,313.827 shares
- `0xd179…74ad` — 4,999.985 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x27f7…44b0` — 38,988 shares
- `0x4f75…af7e` — 26,032.772 shares
- `0x01c7…e995` — 4,054.5 shares
- `0x182d…73e9` — 1,999.989 shares
- `0x66ec…8c18` — 1,872.111 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 28 |
| Window start | 2026-05-01T23:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T01:59:04.000Z |
| Range | 83¢ → 84¢ |
| Net change | -1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-sinner-zverev-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev — 83% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T02:00:31.760Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-sinner-zverev-2026-05-03.
```

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