# Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 14:26:06 GMT. 24h change -10.4pp, 24h volume $508.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-spizzir-tiafoe-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-spizzir-tiafoe-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T14:26:06.350Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -9.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -10.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $508.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $541.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $392.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Eliot Spizzirri and Frances Tiafoe in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Eliot Spizzirri' if Eliot Spizzirri advances against Frances Tiafoe.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Eliot Spizzirri.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 86%): Probability moved down 10.4pp in 24h with 1.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x187a…a22b` — 69,604.169 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 31,936.497 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 17,489.206 shares
- `0xde19…3c92` — 14,999.966 shares
- `0x363c…4463` — 12,349.06 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 29,313.103 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 25,560.918 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 23,895 shares
- `0x4e8b…05bd` — 23,072.597 shares
- `0xb3cf…0ebd` — 21,518.537 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 79 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T10:29:04.000Z |
| Range | 10¢ → 13¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-spizzir-tiafoe-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T14:26:06.350Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-spizzir-tiafoe-2026-05-24.
```

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