# Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 12:51:26 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $478.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tabilo-lajovic-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tabilo-lajovic-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T12:51:26.497Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $478.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $478.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $337.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Tabilo and Dusan Lajovic in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 4:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Dusan Lajovic.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Dusan Lajovic' if Dusan Lajovic advances against Alejandro Tabilo.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x13f0…a50f` — 19,939.86 shares
- `0xd123…d341` — 13,936.455 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 11,665.853 shares
- `0xb763…4a90` — 4,545.47 shares
- `0x5b63…11a4` — 3,990.013 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 10,474.013 shares
- `0x8b52…568e` — 9,619.048 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 5,326.328 shares
- `0x10ff…5088` — 5,326.144 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 4,908.841 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 21 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T12:51:07.000Z |
| Range | 51¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +37.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-tabilo-lajovic-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T12:51:26.497Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tabilo-lajovic-2026-05-15.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*