# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 98% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 19:02:10 GMT. 24h change +57.2pp, 24h volume $547.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tiafoe-buse-2026-05-08
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tiafoe-buse-2026-05-08
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T19:02:10.175Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **98¢** (98%) |
| Δ 1h | +53.2pp |
| Δ 24h | +57.2pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $547.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $550.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $168.2K |
| Spread | 1.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Frances Tiafoe and Ignacio Buse in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Ignacio Buse.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ignacio Buse' if Ignacio Buse advances against Frances Tiafoe.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 57.2pp in 24h with 3.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3m ago | `Expert-Shirtdress` | BUY | FRANCES TIAFOE | $1.00 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x7754…9709` — 33,945.276 shares
- `0x9c87…2e1c` — 24,999.997 shares
- `0xe4d3…c2f0` — 17,364.45 shares
- `0x7e85…c2f1` — 15,890.01 shares
- `0x664a…fc5f` — 15,320.336 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 33,428.194 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 27,051.3 shares
- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 22,767 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 20,512.544 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 16,860.259 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:22.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T18:52:06.000Z |
| Range | 28¢ → 98¢ |
| Net change | +44.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-tiafoe-buse-2026-05-08` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse — 98% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T19:02:10.175Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tiafoe-buse-2026-05-08.
```

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