# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 19:25:11 GMT. 24h change +64.5pp, 24h volume $960.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tien-bublik-2026-05-10
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tien-bublik-2026-05-10
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T19:25:11.225Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +11.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +64.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $960.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $962.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $533.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Alexander Bublik in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Alexander Bublik.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Learner Tien.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 92%): Probability moved up 64.5pp in 24h with 1.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 40,882 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 33,330 shares
- `0x5bec…b215` — 21,402.332 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 20,204.074 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 19,999.968 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 20,738.574 shares
- `0x5fea…78b1` — 16,118.706 shares
- `0x3257…2f3b` — 12,499.922 shares
- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 11,809.9 shares
- `0x4f75…af7e` — 11,439.838 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 37 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T08:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T19:12:06.000Z |
| Range | 19¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +64.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-tien-bublik-2026-05-10` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T19:25:11.225Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tien-bublik-2026-05-10.
```

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