# Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 22 May 2026 17:02:30 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $1.3M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tien-bublik-2026-05-22
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tien-bublik-2026-05-22
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-22T17:02:30.097Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +68.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.3M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.1M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Alexander Bublik in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 22, 2026 at 9:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Alexander Bublik.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Learner Tien.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2eaa…7d1a` — 82,900 shares
- `0x2dc8…47d0` — 52,994 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 37,216.24 shares
- `0xb595…5922` — 32,000 shares
- `0x3ac0…7604` — 30,226.84 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf284…b9f9` — 97,495.088 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 43,403.486 shares
- `0x6dab…e5c0` — 34,099.207 shares
- `0x25cb…03a3` — 31,105.892 shares
- `0x2c33…0563` — 29,996.547 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 19 |
| Window start | 2026-05-21T23:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T16:22:03.000Z |
| Range | 42¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +56.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-tien-bublik-2026-05-22` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-22T17:02:30.097Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tien-bublik-2026-05-22.
```

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