# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadenasso

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 19:26:27 GMT. 24h change +36.4pp, 24h volume $774.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tirante-cadenas-2026-05-06
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tirante-cadenas-2026-05-06
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T19:26:27.029Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +36.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $774.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $777.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $650.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Gianluca Cadenasso in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Gianluca Cadenasso.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Gianluca Cadenasso' if Gianluca Cadenasso advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x88d1…18da` — 66,278.667 shares
- `0xe557…9597` — 55,000 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 31,361.83 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 9,123.525 shares
- `0xfc0c…cfc9` — 6,178.388 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 34,087.303 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 20,062.106 shares
- `0x9c87…2e1c` — 13,934.661 shares
- `0x5aa9…febe` — 13,302.343 shares
- `0xea2b…1fc6` — 12,407.1 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 76 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T19:26:09.000Z |
| Range | 17¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +33.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-tirante-cadenas-2026-05-06` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadenasso — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T19:26:27.029Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tirante-cadenas-2026-05-06.
```

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